The media repeatedly reports that areas like Syria, Nigeria and Iran have developed conflicts in part due to water shortages. A belief exists that climate change could exacerbate this situation, leading to even more conflicts in the future. Some research appears to show that the majority of conflicts are due to factors related to climate change.
However, there is other research which suggests that droughts actually reduce conflicts. A recent paper finds that Africa sees more violent conflicts across the continent when people are producing more agricultural products rather than less. So, blaming conflicts on the effects of climate change is misguided at best.
An exception to this rule lies in parts of Somalia where drought conditions have led to further conflicts. Still, this is a minority situation, not the standard. Although some experts feel that Somalia along with Nigeria and Syria are examples of situations where droughts and water crises have contributed to political instability, these countries also exhibit weak governments, lack of effective institutions, widespread corruption, and violence. The climate factors are only part of a potent cocktail of instability.
More likely to precipitate conflict than drought are corruption and famine. Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen are all facing these conditions. In Nigeria, Boko Haram forced many people out of their homes, stopped food production, and raised the price of food. Any food remaining was stolen by the rebels.
Yemen suffered from years of civil war between Houthi Islamic extremists and forces loyal to the government. Humanitarian aid was blocked, and the war made producing or finding food nearly impossible.
South Sudan regularly works to marginalize minority groups by blocking humanitarian aid and taxing aid workers. Crops are being destroyed and aid and trade are both blocked.
Somalia was the only one of the above countries in which food shortages occurred due to drought. But, even there, the drought has been more severe due to the long-standing instabilities in the country. There is evidence that the last lengthy drought in 2011 reduced the effectiveness of the Al-Shabaab rebel group.
Every one of the nineteen countries identified by the FAO as being in a state of food crisis are affected by violence and conflict. Climate change is not causing these conditions. It is an additive factor, not the root cause.
Recently, Iran was affected by food riots, which tend to occur after food prices spike due to oil price increases or during periods of food price volatility. While it is conceivable that climate change can affect the volatility of food prices, such large swings in the price of food are the result of other causes.
Riots over food and water typically happen in authoritarian countries that are experiencing social and political tensions due to the rapid increase of urbanization. The problem increases even more when these governments are unwilling or unable to assist their citizens, such as through subsidies.
While an increase in lengthy heat waves or droughts caused by climate change may lead to food and water shortages in the future, and these shortages may then contribute to political instability and violent conflict, it is clear that currently they are only one of many factors and not a primary cause of armed conflict in the world today.
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It may be possible that climate change conditions are the final straw that tips the scale to violent conflict. However, it is still much less of a factor than low economic development, totalitarian governments, a lack of property rights enforcement, or lack of social programs to protect citizens from volatile markets, governments, and rebel groups.
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